Study: Earth Outside 'Safe Operating Space for Humanity'
2023-09-21
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1A new study from international researchers says that Earth is outside of its "safe operating space for humanity" in six of nine measures of its health.
2The study added that two of the remaining three measures are moving in the wrong direction.
3The international scientists published the study in Science Advances.
4They said Earth's climate, biodiversity, land, freshwater, nutrient pollution, and human-made compounds are outside of "safe operating space for humanity."
5The scientists said only the acidity of the oceans, the health of the air, and the ozone layer are within limits considered to be safe.
6The ozone layer is mainly high in the atmosphere and prevents dangerous solar radiation from reaching the surface of the Earth.
7But the study warned that both the ocean and air pollution are moving in the wrong direction.
8Johan Rockstrom is a climate scientist who helped write the study.
9He is director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
10He said, "We are in very bad shape." He compared the Earth to a weakening, sick patient.
11In 2009, Rockstrom and other researchers created nine "boundary areas" and used measurements of them to judge Earth's health.
12The latest study continued research from a similar one in 2015.
13The latest study added a sixth area to the unsafe listing.
14Rockstrom said the Earth's water went from being safe to being "out-of-bounds."
15The scientists said this was because of river run-off.
16They said better measurements and understanding of the issue had shown there was a problem.
17Rockstrom said these boundaries would decide the future of the planet.
18He added the nine measures have been "scientifically well established" by other studies.
19If Earth can manage these nine measures, Earth could be more-or-less safe. But it is not, he said.
20The nine measures were compared with each other in different ways.
21The team used computer simulations to predict the future.
22They would, for example, make predictions based on increases in the average temperature of the Earth.
23The team found, if one area was affected badly by a temperature change then all areas were affected badly.
24The team also found that if one area improved, all areas improved.
25The scientists said the simulations showed that one of the most powerful ways to help the climate is to clean up land and to save forests.
26Returning forests to the late 20th century levels would provide natural areas to store carbon dioxide instead of in the air, where it traps heat, the study said.
27Rockstrom added that biodiversity is in the most troubling area but does not get as much attention.
28However, the study said the ozone layer is improving.
29This shows that when the world and its leaders decide to deal with a problem, it can be fixed.
30Neil Donahue is a Carnegie Mellon chemistry and environment professor.
31He said, "for the most part there are things that we know how to do" to improve the remaining problems.
32Some biodiversity scientists, like Duke University's Stuart Pimm, have disputed Rockstrom's methods, saying they are not worth much.
33Granger Morgan is a Carnegie Mellon environmental engineering professor and was not part of the study.
34He said, "Experts don't agree on exactly where the limits are, or how much the planet's different systems may interact, but we are getting dangerously close."
35Morgan said he has often said if we do not cut back on how we are harming the Earth, "we're toast."
36He added, "This paper says it's more likely that we're burnt toast."
37I'm Gregory Stachel.
1A new study from international researchers says that Earth is outside of its "safe operating space for humanity" in six of nine measures of its health. The study added that two of the remaining three measures are moving in the wrong direction. 2The international scientists published the study in Science Advances. They said Earth's climate, biodiversity, land, freshwater, nutrient pollution, and human-made compounds are outside of "safe operating space for humanity." 3The scientists said only the acidity of the oceans, the health of the air, and the ozone layer are within limits considered to be safe. 4The ozone layer is mainly high in the atmosphere and prevents dangerous solar radiation from reaching the surface of the Earth. 5But the study warned that both the ocean and air pollution are moving in the wrong direction. 6Johan Rockstrom is a climate scientist who helped write the study. He is director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He said, "We are in very bad shape." He compared the Earth to a weakening, sick patient. 7In 2009, Rockstrom and other researchers created nine "boundary areas" and used measurements of them to judge Earth's health. The latest study continued research from a similar one in 2015. The latest study added a sixth area to the unsafe listing. 8Rockstrom said the Earth's water went from being safe to being "out-of-bounds." The scientists said this was because of river run-off. They said better measurements and understanding of the issue had shown there was a problem. 9Rockstrom said these boundaries would decide the future of the planet. He added the nine measures have been "scientifically well established" by other studies. If Earth can manage these nine measures, Earth could be more-or-less safe. But it is not, he said. 10The nine measures were compared with each other in different ways. The team used computer simulations to predict the future. They would, for example, make predictions based on increases in the average temperature of the Earth. The team found, if one area was affected badly by a temperature change then all areas were affected badly. The team also found that if one area improved, all areas improved. 11The scientists said the simulations showed that one of the most powerful ways to help the climate is to clean up land and to save forests. Returning forests to the late 20th century levels would provide natural areas to store carbon dioxide instead of in the air, where it traps heat, the study said. 12Rockstrom added that biodiversity is in the most troubling area but does not get as much attention. 13However, the study said the ozone layer is improving. This shows that when the world and its leaders decide to deal with a problem, it can be fixed. 14Neil Donahue is a Carnegie Mellon chemistry and environment professor. He said, "for the most part there are things that we know how to do" to improve the remaining problems. 15Some biodiversity scientists, like Duke University's Stuart Pimm, have disputed Rockstrom's methods, saying they are not worth much. 16Granger Morgan is a Carnegie Mellon environmental engineering professor and was not part of the study. He said, "Experts don't agree on exactly where the limits are, or how much the planet's different systems may interact, but we are getting dangerously close." 17Morgan said he has often said if we do not cut back on how we are harming the Earth, "we're toast." He added, "This paper says it's more likely that we're burnt toast." 18I'm Gregory Stachel. 19Seth Borenstein reported this story for The Associated Press. Gregory Stachel adapted the story for VOA Learning English. 20_________________________________________________ 21Words in This Story 22boundary -n. an area where something ends, and another begins 23out-of-bounds -adj. an area that is outside the place where a game is played 24biodiversity - n. the existence of many different kinds of plants and animals in an environment 25manage - v. to keep (something) under your control 26simulation - n. something that is made to look, feel, or behave like something else especially so that it can be studied or used to train people 27interact - v. to come together and have an effect on each other 28be toast - idiom to be in a lot of trouble 29toast - n. bread that has been sliced and then made crisp and brown by heat